Climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, creating deep uncertainty for decision-makers. To build climate resilience, flexible evaluation methods that account for a range of future scenarios. Adaptive Decision Making (ADM) provides this flexibility by enabling adaptive planning that evolves as new information emerges, ensuring more effective investment decisions in an unpredictable climate.
Based on scientific studies and recent climate events in New Zealand, climate is beginning to exacerbate extreme “one-in-100-year” events. Higher temperatures mean more evaporation and moisture in the atmosphere and stronger storms, droughts and heat waves. Climate resilience means recognising that extremes are not necessarily extraordinary, and effective project evaluation methodologies are needed to support the ability to efficiently select between project alternatives, to prepare, respond and recover quickly.
In this report, we identify the available methods for ADM in climate change and their pros and cons. We then provide suggestions for considerations of climate change adaptation within an investment decision making framework.